The first Friday of every month is the day the Labour Department in the US releases its monthly official unemployment report but due to the July 4th national holiday tomorrow the official unemployment data will be released today at 10.30pm AEST.
If last night’s private ADP employment report is anything to go by the official data tonight could surprise to the upside by quite a bit. The ADP private jobs report Wednesday showed that the US economy added 281,000 jobs in the month of June which is well above the market estimates of around 210,000 to 215,000. The US Dollar rallied on this news but I will remind you that on the odd occasion we have seen the private and official jobs data in the past be vastly different. But overall it is generally a decent guide and my sensors are telling me to watch for a better than expected number tonight.
The US Dollar rose Thursday simply because of expectation of a pickup in the US economy which would mean the US Fed may need to change its stance on when they plan to raise interest rates. One jobs number won't change the Fed's mind but a number of solid months of jobs gains will certainly get their attention and the speculation rally could very well begin in September or October. If the US did create over 200,000 jobs in June that will mark the 5th consecutive month of jobs numbers over 200,000 and it would be the best streak of jobs numbers since the year 2000.
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