The US Fed says the magic money printing press will stop soon.

We've seen the US Fed wind back the amount of money it has been magically printing from $85 Billion a month to $35 Billion a month since December last year and in Wednesday’s monthly minutes the Fed said,

"Participants generally agreed that if incoming information continued to support its expectation of improvement in labor market conditions and a return of inflation toward its longer-run objective, it would be appropriate to complete asset purchases with a $15 billion reduction in the pace of purchases in order to avoid having the small, remaining level of purchases receive undue focus among investors. If the economy progresses about as the Committee expects, warranting reductions in the pace of purchases at each upcoming meeting, this final reduction would occur following the October meeting."

This should be around the same time financial markets begin to factor in higher interest rates in the US in the coming 12 months as usually the speculation rally begins 12 months out from when the rates actually go up.

The US Dollar didn't get a boost from this news overnight but if the economic data continues to improve it will only be a matter of time.

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US Non-Farm Payrolls data comes a day early.

The first Friday of every month is the day the Labour Department in the US releases its monthly official unemployment report but due to the July 4th national holiday tomorrow the official unemployment data will be released today at 10.30pm AEST.

If last night’s private ADP employment report is anything to go by the official data tonight could surprise to the upside by quite a bit. The ADP private jobs report Wednesday showed that the US economy added 281,000 jobs in the month of June which is well above the market estimates of around 210,000 to 215,000. The US Dollar rallied on this news but I will remind you that on the odd occasion we have seen the private and official jobs data in the past be vastly different.  But overall it is generally a decent guide and my sensors are telling me to watch for a better than expected number tonight.

The US Dollar rose Thursday simply because of expectation of a pickup in the US economy which would mean the US Fed may need to change its stance on when they plan to raise interest rates. One jobs number won't change the Fed's mind but a number of solid months of jobs gains will certainly get their attention and the speculation rally could very well begin in September or October. If the US did create over 200,000 jobs in June that will mark the 5th consecutive month of jobs numbers over 200,000 and it would be the best streak of jobs numbers since the year 2000.

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